44% of Government Contracts Get Only One Bid

Ask any small business owner why they don't bid on government contracts, and you'll hear some version of the same answer: "I can't compete with the big guys." They imagine hundreds of companies fighting over every contract, massive proposal teams at Lockheed and Booz Allen crushing every bid.

The data tells a completely different story.

That's not a typo. Nearly half of all federal contracts that were open for competition received a single offer. The contracting officer posted the opportunity, waited for bids, and only one company showed up. That company won by default.

This isn't an anomaly. It's been the trend for over a decade, and the percentage has been climbing. In 2014, it was 37%. Today it's 44%. The government has a competition problem — and that problem is your opportunity.

Why Does This Happen?

Multiple factors drive single-bid contracts, and none of them are "the work is too hard" or "only one company can do it."

1. Small businesses don't know opportunities exist

The primary reason. SAM.gov posts thousands of new contract opportunities every week. Most small businesses never see them because they don't know where to look, don't search regularly, or get overwhelmed by the interface. A janitorial company in Phoenix might be perfect for a base cleaning contract 20 miles away — but they never knew it was posted.

2. The discovery process is painful

SAM.gov's search functionality is notoriously difficult. Results are cluttered with expired opportunities, filtering is limited, and there's no way to set up meaningful alerts without wading through noise. Many businesses try once, get frustrated, and never come back.

3. Perception of impossibility

The myth that government contracting is "only for big companies" keeps capable small businesses from even trying. They assume they need armies of proposal writers, decades of past performance, and lobbyists. For many contracts — especially those under $250,000 — that's simply not true.

4. Solicitation documents are intimidating

A typical government solicitation runs 30-100 pages of dense legal and technical language. Even when a contract is straightforward work (mow this lawn, clean this building, provide these supplies), the paperwork makes it look impossibly complex. Many qualified businesses read page one and give up.

5. Short response windows

Some solicitations have 15-30 day response periods. If a business discovers the opportunity on day 25, there's no time to put together a quality proposal. Regular monitoring — or alerts — is the only way to catch opportunities early enough to respond.

What This Means for Your Business

The math is in your favor

Think about what 44% single-bid means practically:

• If you bid on 10 contracts, statistically 4-5 of them will have no other bidder
• For those 4-5, you win automatically (assuming you meet the basic requirements)
• For the remaining 5-6, you're competing against a small number of firms — not hundreds

The average number of bids on competed contracts is just 3.2. Even when there IS competition, it's minimal.

Volume is the strategy

The businesses that win government contracts aren't necessarily better at proposals. They're better at showing up. They search regularly, they bid consistently, and they play the numbers. If you bid on 20 contracts a year and 44% have no competition, that's roughly 9 wins without even needing to outperform anyone.

Set-asides amplify the effect

Single-bid rates are even HIGHER for set-aside contracts. When a contract is restricted to SDVOSB or HUBZone firms, the eligible pool shrinks dramatically. In some NAICS codes, there may only be a handful of certified firms in the entire region. Getting certified doesn't just open new doors — it puts you in rooms where almost nobody else shows up.

The Government's Competition Problem Is Your Advantage

From the government's perspective, single-bid contracts are a problem. They mean taxpayers might not be getting the best value. The GAO has issued multiple reports urging agencies to improve competition. Congress has held hearings about it.

But here's the thing: you can't force businesses to bid. The government can post opportunities, extend deadlines, and simplify requirements — but if only one company shows up, they still need the work done. They can't wait forever.

What this means strategically:

• Contracting officers want more bidders. They actively seek small businesses to bid. If you reach out, attend industry days, or register your capabilities on SAM.gov, they notice.
• Re-competed contracts are opportunities. When a contract gets only one bid, the agency sometimes re-posts it with a longer timeline or broader scope. Check recent awards to see what's being re-competed in your industry.
• Incumbents get lazy. When a company has won the same contract 3 times with no competition, their proposals get weaker. A fresh, enthusiastic bidder who shows clear understanding of the work can displace a complacent incumbent.

How to Find Low-Competition Contracts

Not all contracts are equally uncontested. Here's how to identify the ones most likely to have minimal competition:

1. Search by specific NAICS code + location. The more specific your search, the more likely you'll find opportunities where few competitors exist. A NAICS code that has 10,000 registered firms nationally might have only 12 in your state.
2. Look at set-aside contracts in niche categories. WOSB set-asides in construction, or SDVOSB set-asides in healthcare consulting — these combinations dramatically narrow the competitor pool.
3. Target smaller dollar amounts. Contracts between $25,000 and $150,000 get the least attention from established government contractors (too small to be worth their overhead) but are perfect for small businesses building past performance.
4. Watch for contracts in rural or non-obvious locations. A base maintenance contract in Kansas will attract fewer bidders than one in Washington, D.C. Location-specific work naturally limits competition to regional firms.
5. Monitor newly posted contracts immediately. The businesses that bid first often bid best — they have more time to prepare. Set up daily alerts on FedScanner so you see opportunities the day they post, not two weeks later.

Check the Award History

One of the most powerful research tactics: look at past award data. When you can see that a contract was previously awarded with only one offer, you know:

• The incumbent is likely the only bidder
• When the contract comes up for re-competition, you may be the only new entrant
• Even if the incumbent re-bids, you're only competing against one other firm

FedScanner's award data lets you research this history. Look at contracts in your industry, check how many offers were received, and identify opportunities where one additional bidder (you) would make it a two-horse race.

What Stops You From Being the Only Bidder?

Nothing. Seriously. If you:

• Have an active SAM.gov registration
• Know your NAICS codes
• Can perform the work described in the solicitation
• Submit a compliant proposal before the deadline

...you can bid. And in 44% of cases, you might be the only one who does.

The government contracting market isn't a crowded room where you need to shout louder than everyone else. It's a series of mostly-empty rooms where the people who walk in and raise their hand tend to get what they came for.

Start walking into rooms.